A BattleBots Pro League 2026 prediction model, scraped live through Bright Data, and then put on trial rather than sold as an oracle.
It does not work, and that is the result. 56.5% accuracy, Brier 0.424
where 0.25 is a coin flip, and the 90–100% confidence bucket lands 30% of the time.
McNemar p = 1.00 with b=0 and c=0 — the model never once disagreed with simply
backing the better record. Betting it takes a 1000 bankroll to 246.
Twenty-four bots with two fights each. A small-data model gets dangerously confident long before it gets accurate, and the calibration chart and the bankroll curve are the same statement in two languages.